Navigating Russia

Moscow’s Fading Shadow Fleet: Russian Oil Revenues are More Vulnerable than Ever

The West has cracked the code on how to roll back Russia’s shadow fleet at scale. This gives policymakers new, low-risk, high-impact options for further…

May 7 • 

Craig Kennedy

61

7

13

February 2025

Russia's Hidden War Debt (full report)

Moscow has been discreetly funding heavy war costs with risky, off-budget debt. But the scheme has caused major problems—with more likely to…

Feb 14 • 

Craig Kennedy

100

3

26

January 2025

Russia’s Hidden War Debt

Moscow has been stealthily funding much of its war costs with risky, off-budget financing overlooked by the West. That funding is now under pressure…

Jan 11 • 

Craig Kennedy

191

57

39

December 2024

Making the Baltic a "Shadow-Free" Zone (Brookings Paper)

A proposal to reduce Moscow's shadow fleet operations in European waters by pressuring vessels to comply with international insurance standards (May…

Dec 17, 2024 • 

Craig Kennedy

10

1

2

April 2024

The Shadow Fleet in Crisis (highlights from an upcoming report)

Beset by mixed economics and perilous sanctions, shadow fleet growth has stalled. OFAC is well positioned to downsize the fleet and undercut Moscow’s…

Apr 8, 2024 • 

Craig Kennedy

23

4

3

January 2024

The De-Kastri Mystery

Why has half a billion dollars of Sakhalin oil been turned away from India? And what does it portend for Russia’s shadow trade?

Jan 15, 2024 • 

Craig Kennedy

16

1

1

December 2023

Dangerous Waters

How far will OFAC go in sanctioning Russia's shadow trade?

Dec 13, 2023 • 

Craig Kennedy

11

4

August 2023

Measuring the Shadows

Moscow’s Strategies for Evading Oil Sanctions and How to Stop them from Succeeding

Aug 23, 2023 • 

Craig Kennedy

8

3

October 2022

Putin’s Looming Tanker Crisis

Will a Kremlin-Engineered Oil Shock be the Next Move in Moscow’s Expanding Energy War?

Oct 19, 2022 • 

Craig Kennedy

21

8

April 2022

Putin's Dilemma (essay in Politico)

What to Do if the West Stops Buying Russian Oil?

Apr 27, 2022 • 

Craig Kennedy

6

Russian Oil's Achilles Heel

How to Enhance the Impact of Oil Sanctions (Working Draft)

Apr 8, 2022 • 

Craig Kennedy

11

March 2022

Coming soon

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Mar 3, 2022

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