Shadow fleet is much larger than we think, around 150 vessels (mostly Afras) could be deployed for the Russian trade. The economics are certainly there
thanks for that data point--it's really interesting; there's quite a range of estimates, as you might expect; I've been modelling an even higher vessel count than that, but with VLCCs accounting for more than half of total DWT. What do you rate as the best source of info on shadow fleet size? Fully agree the economics will be there. The question becomes how many vessels can Moscow poach away from Iran, tie into something like an exclusive time charters and then rely on to be on the job 24x7x365? My impression is they are rather less reliable than a high quality time charter. Moscow needs certainty of off-take to plan production because of a lack of strategic storage. Any thoughts?
Excellent analysis. One small point regarding your scenarios at the end. If anything, oil sanctions against Iran are likely to tighten, not slacken, due to Iran’s supplying Russia with kamikaze attack drones and Iran’s training Russian military personnel in how to use them effectively against Ukraine.
Thanks for the kind words and the excellent point on Iran. Between the drones and Tehran's domestic crackdown, the prospects for (not to mention the optics of) an Iran deal seem to be getting dimmer, not brighter.
No offense, but another bad prediction. They sell less and make more $. This is why you thought sanctions against 3.7 billion barrels of Russian oil was going to hurt Russia more than the global economy. https://aaronlee.substack.com/p/one-trillion-dollars-in-2023-how
Excellent analysis. I am ready for Act II, global oil supply shock. Oil markets react quickly and are very slow to resolve. Going to be very wild over next year.
Thanks a lot! It's a fantastic analysis. I remembered your first articles from April and decided to check the blog once again. And so I came across this article. It's very insightful.
Shadow fleet is much larger than we think, around 150 vessels (mostly Afras) could be deployed for the Russian trade. The economics are certainly there
thanks for that data point--it's really interesting; there's quite a range of estimates, as you might expect; I've been modelling an even higher vessel count than that, but with VLCCs accounting for more than half of total DWT. What do you rate as the best source of info on shadow fleet size? Fully agree the economics will be there. The question becomes how many vessels can Moscow poach away from Iran, tie into something like an exclusive time charters and then rely on to be on the job 24x7x365? My impression is they are rather less reliable than a high quality time charter. Moscow needs certainty of off-take to plan production because of a lack of strategic storage. Any thoughts?
Excellent analysis. One small point regarding your scenarios at the end. If anything, oil sanctions against Iran are likely to tighten, not slacken, due to Iran’s supplying Russia with kamikaze attack drones and Iran’s training Russian military personnel in how to use them effectively against Ukraine.
Thanks for the kind words and the excellent point on Iran. Between the drones and Tehran's domestic crackdown, the prospects for (not to mention the optics of) an Iran deal seem to be getting dimmer, not brighter.
No offense, but another bad prediction. They sell less and make more $. This is why you thought sanctions against 3.7 billion barrels of Russian oil was going to hurt Russia more than the global economy. https://aaronlee.substack.com/p/one-trillion-dollars-in-2023-how
Excellent analysis. I am ready for Act II, global oil supply shock. Oil markets react quickly and are very slow to resolve. Going to be very wild over next year.
I wish you continued writing :)
Thanks a lot! It's a fantastic analysis. I remembered your first articles from April and decided to check the blog once again. And so I came across this article. It's very insightful.