Will a Kremlin-Engineered Oil Shock be the Next Move in Moscow’s Expanding Energy War?
Shadow fleet is much larger than we think, around 150 vessels (mostly Afras) could be deployed for the Russian trade. The economics are certainly there
Excellent analysis. One small point regarding your scenarios at the end. If anything, oil sanctions against Iran are likely to tighten, not slacken, due to Iran’s supplying Russia with kamikaze attack drones and Iran’s training Russian military personnel in how to use them effectively against Ukraine.
No offense, but another bad prediction. They sell less and make more $. This is why you thought sanctions against 3.7 billion barrels of Russian oil was going to hurt Russia more than the global economy. https://aaronlee.substack.com/p/one-trillion-dollars-in-2023-how
Excellent analysis. I am ready for Act II, global oil supply shock. Oil markets react quickly and are very slow to resolve. Going to be very wild over next year.
I wish you continued writing :)
Thanks a lot! It's a fantastic analysis. I remembered your first articles from April and decided to check the blog once again. And so I came across this article. It's very insightful.