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Excellent article, as usual.

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Dec 15Edited

You must think Russians are retarded. I disagree. "Russians don't take a shit without a plan" - Hunt for Red October

Russia left it's reserves out there hoping West would sanction them. West have not even appropriated them yet and are already terrified everyone wants out of USD and Euro - and besides Russia has 4 trillion in Western assets they can take inside Russia if it's tit for tat. . Even so - China is pulling hundreds of billions out in UST. Total self own. Boats/oil same deal Russia does not want Russia to be European citizens enemy by cutting off oil. Russians wants Western politicians to be Europeans enemy by doing it for them. Russia needs no dollars or Euros what are they going to do with them? There is sanctions on Western services/goods in case you have not heard. Hopefully Europe cuts these illegal ships off 100% and In 3-4 years All Western politicians will be replaced with more Pro Russian ones as they slide into poverty.

Russia does not need West at all. It doesnt even need China really it's an autarky unlike China but China provides everything West used to at a much cheaper price. 6 axis CNC lathes to make more ammo to Autos. West does need Russian resources, more than ever now that Africa is finally getting free of European yoke. This inescapable fact will always cause Western sanction to fail.

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This was a great read! Do you have a view on the risk of contagion to the mainstream fleet?

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Glad you liked it. Only one of the eight tankers sanctioned so far was from the mainstream fleet. It was deeply involved in the problematic Kozmino trade in the early weeks following introduction of sanctions last December, when other mainstream tankers had pulled back, because of high market prices for ESPO crude. Treasury may be trying to send a signal to the mainstream fleet about compliance. But the focus so far has been overwhelmingly on the shadow fleet, especially Sovcomflot vessels. It looks more like OFAC wants to constrain the expansion of the shadow fleet and raise the risk premium around the shadow trade more broadly. I would expect most of the focus to remain on the shadow fleet, not the mainstream, but who knows.

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